AAPL305.93MSFT495.40NVDA225.16TSLA342.27AMZN262.65GOOGL345.90META589.85AMD514.39AVGO392.99MU971.66INTC102.50NFLX78.16AAPL305.93MSFT495.40NVDA225.16TSLA342.27AMZN262.65GOOGL345.90META589.85AMD514.39AVGO392.99MU971.66INTC102.50NFLX78.16
AI-native strategies · built in the open
Balder is an AI-native trading desk. An agent loop researches, tests and trades — reading filings, option chains and institutional flow at a scale no analyst team can match — and every position it takes is published, on entry and on exit.
Members get more than signals. You get the tools, the structure reads, the earnings radar, and the reasoning behind every call — so you learn how an edge gets found, not just what to buy. Three engines live. More every month.
Backdrop: cumulative per-trade return across 55 closed trades (07-31–08-15) — equal weight, a sum of trade returns, not a portfolio return.
Calls that worked
Gold marks where the book disclosed the entry, white where it announced the exit. These are the best four — the full record, losers included, is here.
The products
Each has its own page — how it's built, what it found, and what it's saying now.
What options charge for the jump versus what the stock actually does.
Open the radar →
Pivots, break triggers, measured targets and the read in words.
Open a chart →SPX, NDX and 13 stocks priced overnight and at weekends — real prints, no gaps.
Open the board →
A distribution on the next close — 6,000 gamma-adjusted paths.
Open the forecast →
超跌反弹 + 动量捕捉，持仓几小时到几天，实时汇报，收盘后总结。
看全部交易 →
上涨趋势追随，每天收盘后发出，进出全部公开并附理由。
看持仓记录 →Why this is different
Most market coverage is a vendor feed with a chart on top. This desk reads the primary record and fixes what the feeds get wrong — which is where the edge actually lives now that everyone has the same models.
The Q2 flow panel is rebuilt from SEC’s raw 13F data across 1,410 managers and 4.77M holdings — then corrected for stock splits, entity migrations, CUSIP changes and filer misreporting. Every one of those makes a vendor number quietly wrong.
An earnings reaction lands on a different day for a pre-market reporter than an after-close one. Measure both alike — as most sources do — and a fairly-priced option looks 4× too expensive. Ours is session-aligned.
Form 4 insider buys and 13D stakes are pulled straight off EDGAR twice a day, filtered to open-market purchases with the insider’s own cash. The filing is public before anyone writes it up.
The research agent runs continuously — testing ideas, killing the ones that fail, and promoting what survives. Three engines live today. The ones that reach the site are the ones that already earned their place.
Highlights
Written by Balder, not by the machine — the desk publishes the data, these are the calls and arguments around it. Numbers are the real reach on X.
又有人问我Fable是怎么预测财报的，我来泄露一下商业机密吧。 首先肯定不是你直接问Fable这个财报怎么看，这样做是没用的，虽然Fable拥有比我们所有人都多的知识，但是没有结构性的输入就不会有结构性的输出。
在 X 上看原帖 →Michael Burry重仓 11%仓位做空 $NBIS 今天遭到30%的暴涨。 在这种毁灭性轧空之下，MB决定加大做空仓位。 substack还能继续提供无限弹药吗？
在 X 上看原帖 →Jane Street 在 7 月 引起Situational Awareness 大崩溃中录得 150 亿美元亏损，几乎抹去了去年大牛市中获得利润的一半。 所以就连天天割散户韭菜的，地表最强大量化机构也在今年七月折戟。 所以我们度过了毁灭性的7月 迎来了充满希望的八月。
在 X 上看原帖 →Fable认为 $LITE 财报要上涨 $GLW 侧击还是 $LITX 直接轰入。
在 X 上看原帖 →$MU 的IV出现了崩溃式的下跌，今天不涨不跌，昨天买的期权都会自动减10% 这究竟是什么原因，是谁在拼命卖出 $MU 的期权。
在 X 上看原帖 →$MU 这种情况，就很容易引起严重的Gamma squeeze，这些人卖出的低价期权一下成了燃料罐。末日期权IV直接从70%飙升到接近100% 所以我们说目前这个期权价格是mis-price，后面他们肯定要修复的。
在 X 上看原帖 →Recent opinion
Balder’s own posts, newest first. Click any of them to open the original on X.
Markets around the clock
Friday 4pm the tape stops, and for 65 hours every app you own shows you a dead number. Meanwhile Tokyo trades, futures move, and by Monday’s open the gap has already happened — you just weren’t allowed to watch it.
This one forecasts nothing. It is a live board that never goes dark: cash index during US hours, CME futures overnight, and Hyperliquid perps at weekends — so there is a real price at 3am on a Sunday instead of a stale Friday close. Every number is an actual print from a named venue. Only tickers with a genuine 24/7 venue appear; nothing is invented to fill a gap.
SPX forecast
A forecast, and deliberately separate from the 24/7 board — that one reports prints, this one puts a distribution on tomorrow’s close. Six thousand Monte-Carlo paths, gamma-adjusted, anchored on the live option chain: where dealers damp or amplify moves, and the walls that tend to pin price.
A 68% band that contains the close 94% of the time is too wide, not “94% accurate”. The honest read is that the cone is currently conservative, and tightening it is open work. We publish the number either way.
The band published that morning, and where the index actually closed.
| Session | 68% band | 95% band | Close | Expected move | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | 7,753 – 7,807 | 7,731 – 7,829 | 7,785.76 | ±70.7 | inside |
| 2026-08-13 | 7,770 – 7,819 | 7,748 – 7,841 | 7,798.99 | ±72.4 | inside |
| 2026-08-12 | 7,724 – 7,801 | 7,703 – 7,823 | 7,748.50 | ±70.7 | inside |
| 2026-08-11 | 7,656 – 7,804 | 7,584 – 7,878 | 7,728.20 | ±74.5 | inside |
| 2026-08-10 | 7,677 – 7,803 | 7,613 – 7,825 | 7,753.11 | ±72.6 | inside |
| 2026-08-07 | 7,682 – 7,761 | 7,660 – 7,784 | 7,757.64 | ±74.0 | inside |
| 2026-08-06 | 7,669 – 7,747 | 7,646 – 7,772 | 7,709.96 | ±75.3 | inside |
| 2026-08-05 | 7,673 – 7,753 | 7,649 – 7,776 | 7,723.55 | ±75.5 | inside |
| 2026-08-04 | 7,608 – 7,752 | 7,538 – 7,808 | 7,736.52 | ±80.2 | inside |
| 2026-08-03 | 7,499 – 7,618 | 7,476 – 7,641 | 7,600.50 | ±75.5 | inside |
| 2026-07-31 | 7,378 – 7,543 | 7,298 – 7,625 | 7,489.72 | ±82.7 | inside |
| 2026-07-30 | 7,307 – 7,471 | 7,228 – 7,552 | 7,437.63 | ±82.1 | inside |
| 2026-07-29 | 7,333 – 7,501 | 7,251 – 7,584 | 7,316.15 | ±84.5 | 68% miss |
| 2026-07-28 | 7,309 – 7,479 | 7,227 – 7,563 | 7,428.78 | ±85.0 | inside |
| 2026-07-27 | 7,375 – 7,551 | 7,289 – 7,639 | 7,413.18 | ±88.5 | inside |
| 2026-07-24 | 7,317 – 7,493 | 7,231 – 7,581 | 7,411.98 | ±88.5 | inside |
| 2026-07-23 | 7,371 – 7,504 | 7,302 – 7,529 | 7,408.30 | ±78.8 | inside |
Earnings Radar
Published every Sunday for the week ahead. For each name reporting, the board compares the implied move priced into options against the typical move that stock has actually delivered on its last nine reports. When those two disagree, that is the trade.
Live predictions for the coming week, published before the reports. Verdict is the ratio of implied to typical: RICH means options cost more than the stock usually moves, CHEAP means less.
| Symbol | Reports | Session | Implied | Typical | Verdict | Up-rate | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | 08-18 | pre | 4.2% | 2.0% | RICH 2.10× | 56% | this week |
| TGT | 08-19 | pre | 6.9% | 7.6% | CHEAP 0.91× | 22% | this week |
| LOW | 08-19 | pre | 5.1% | 2.5% | RICH 2.05× | 44% | this week |
| WMT | 08-20 | pre | 4.9% | 4.8% | FAIR 1.02× | 44% | this week |
| BABA | 08-20 | pre | 7.0% | 6.1% | FAIR 1.15× | 44% | this week |
| NVDA | 08-26 | post | 6.7% | 4.3% | RICH 1.53× | 33% | next 2wk |
| MRVL | 08-27 | post | 13.5% | 12.9% | FAIR 1.04× | 56% | next 2wk |
| AVGO | 09-02 | post | 10.1% | 11.0% | CHEAP 0.92× | 56% | next 2wk |
| DELL | 09-03 | post | 16.9% | 12.3% | RICH 1.38× | 44% | next 2wk |
On every card the conclusion sits in the top-right badge — that is the whole read, and it comes in three colours: ■ 绿 BULLISH means the model expects up, ■ 红 BEARISH expects down, and ■ 灰 coin-flip means it has no edge and makes no call at all.
Only the red and green calls are counted below — the same threshold the card itself uses to print the badge, so the table can never disagree with the picture. The grey ones are not predictions and are excluded rather than quietly scored as free wins — a call the model declined to make cannot be right or wrong. Click any row to see the original card exactly as it was posted on X, before the report.
| Symbol | Reported | Session | Our call | Expected | Actual | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 08-12 | post | BEARISH | ±7.2% | -8.4% | hit | card → |
| LITE | 08-11 | post | BULLISH | ±9.1% | +13.6% | hit | card → |
| ASTS | 08-10 | post | BULLISH | ±11.0% | +4.2% | hit | card → |
| RKLB | 08-10 | post | BEARISH | ±10.9% | -0.0% | hit | card → |
| QBTS | 08-06 | pre | BULLISH | ±8.6% | -9.3% | miss | card → |
| RGTI | 08-06 | post | BULLISH | ±7.6% | +8.5% | hit | card → |
| CRCL | 08-05 | pre | BULLISH | ±9.5% | +0.0% | miss | card → |
| UBER | 08-05 | pre | BULLISH | ±5.0% | -5.3% | miss | card → |
| IONQ | 08-05 | post | BULLISH | ±10.2% | -0.5% | miss | card → |
| OXY | 08-05 | post | BULLISH | ±4.6% | +4.1% | hit | card → |
| AMD | 08-04 | post | BULLISH | ±7.6% | -7.0% | miss | card → |
| CVX | 07-31 | pre | BEARISH | ±2.1% | +2.4% | miss | card → |
| MA | 07-30 | pre | BULLISH | ±2.4% | +2.5% | hit | card → |
| AMZN | 07-30 | post | BULLISH | ±6.7% | +15.3% | hit | card → |
| MSFT | 07-29 | post | BULLISH | ±6.1% | +15.5% | hit | card → |
| BA | 07-28 | pre | BULLISH | ±4.0% | +4.8% | hit | card → |
| STX | 07-28 | post | BULLISH | ±12.5% | +2.3% | hit | card → |
| INTC | 07-23 | post | BEARISH | ±10.4% | -7.9% | hit | card → |
| TSLA | 07-22 | post | BEARISH | ±5.2% | -14.5% | hit | card → |
| TSM | 07-16 | pre | BULLISH | ±3.4% | -2.3% | miss | card → |
| NFLX | 07-16 | post | BEARISH | ±8.1% | -7.3% | hit | card → |
| MS | 07-15 | pre | BULLISH | ±3.1% | +0.4% | hit | card → |
Structure Read
Not a price line. Zig-zag pivots, the break triggers on both sides, measured targets, the volume-at-price magnet profile on the right edge, and the read written out underneath. 6 names below are the full desk chart; all 79 covered tickers are searchable.
Research
Rebuilt from SEC's raw 13F filings rather than a vendor feed. Net flow is change in share count × quarter-end price — change in reported value just tells you the stock went up.
SEC filings are the original record, public before anyone writes them up. This study read 124 companies' own 10-Qs to find where the struck-down tariff refunds actually landed.
Balder-algo-logs · 龙气🤖
持仓从几个小时到几天。开仓、加仓、平仓实时汇报， 收盘半小时后一张卡片总结当天所有交易 — 不是事后挑好的那几笔，是全部。
它们的交易目的本来就不同，所以互不干扰、各自执行。
| 标的 | 策略 | 开仓 | 平仓 | 入场 | 出场 | 收益 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 动量捕捉 | 08-12 | 08-14 | 342.81 | 348.98 | +1.8% |
| QBTS | 动量捕捉 | 08-10 | 08-13 | 20.60 | 21.17 | +2.8% |
| NFLX | 动量捕捉 | 08-12 | 08-13 | 74.33 | 75.79 | +2.0% |
| IONQ | 动量捕捉 | 08-13 | 08-13 | 45.55 | 46.13 | +1.3% |
| TSLA | 超跌反弹 | 08-10 | 08-13 | 327.74 | 339.96 | +3.7% |
| WDC | 动量捕捉 | 08-06 | 08-12 | 423.31 | 452.60 | +6.9% |
| MU | 动量捕捉 | 08-06 | 08-12 | 851.34 | 904.46 | +6.2% |
| TSM | 动量捕捉 | 08-07 | 08-12 | 418.07 | 428.06 | +2.4% |
| STX | 动量捕捉 | 08-10 | 08-12 | 816.99 | 885.94 | +8.4% |
| IONQ | 动量捕捉 | 08-10 | 08-12 | 42.62 | 44.34 | +4.0% |
| ARM | 动量捕捉 | 08-12 | 08-12 | 273.26 | 268.26 | -1.8% |
| MCD | 动量捕捉 | 08-11 | 08-12 | 271.94 | 274.80 | +1.1% |
| HOOD | 超跌反弹 | 08-10 | 08-12 | 93.07 | 94.91 | +2.0% |
| MRVL | 动量捕捉 | 08-04 | 08-11 | 219.71 | 210.57 | -4.2% |
| GOOGL | 动量捕捉 | 08-11 | 08-11 | 353.41 | 349.59 | -1.1% |
| CRCL | 动量捕捉 | 08-10 | 08-11 | 66.61 | 70.29 | +5.5% |
| NFLX | 动量捕捉 | 08-11 | 08-11 | 75.92 | 76.72 | +1.1% |
| ARM | 动量捕捉 | 08-10 | 08-11 | 270.64 | 267.39 | -1.2% |
| INTC | 动量捕捉 | 08-07 | 08-10 | 99.33 | 96.98 | -2.4% |
| MCD | 动量捕捉 | 08-07 | 08-10 | 275.54 | 272.34 | -1.2% |
| ORCL | 动量捕捉 | 08-04 | 08-07 | 146.74 | 145.16 | -1.1% |
| STX | 动量捕捉 | 08-07 | 08-07 | 827.41 | 780.91 | -5.6% |
| ARM | 动量捕捉 | 08-07 | 08-07 | 282.50 | 278.97 | -1.2% |
| BE | 动量捕捉 | 08-04 | 08-07 | 230.75 | 215.80 | -6.5% |
| IONQ | 动量捕捉 | 08-05 | 08-07 | 40.23 | 43.07 | +7.1% |
| RGTI | 动量捕捉 | 08-05 | 08-07 | 16.89 | 17.88 | +5.9% |
| TSLA | 超跌反弹 | 08-04 | 08-07 | 322.06 | 328.57 | +2.0% |
| STX | 动量捕捉 | 08-04 | 08-06 | 863.59 | 788.72 | -8.7% |
| IBM | 动量捕捉 | 08-05 | 08-06 | 234.50 | 231.47 | -1.3% |
| AAPL | 超跌反弹 | 08-03 | 08-06 | 307.30 | 312.40 | +1.7% |
| TSM | 动量捕捉 | 08-04 | 08-05 | 416.20 | 420.61 | +1.1% |
| WDC | 动量捕捉 | 08-03 | 08-05 | 515.51 | 561.49 | +8.9% |
| ASTS | 动量捕捉 | 08-03 | 08-04 | 63.51 | 70.62 | +11.2% |
| NOK | 超跌反弹 | 07-31 | 08-04 | 9.44 | 9.92 | +5.1% |
| CRCL | 动量捕捉 | 07-31 | 08-03 | 62.01 | 58.85 | -5.1% |
| INTC | 动量捕捉 | 08-03 | 08-03 | 87.78 | 90.67 | +3.3% |
| IBM | 超跌反弹 | 07-29 | 08-03 | 224.37 | 226.30 | +0.9% |
| SPCX | 超跌反弹 | 07-29 | 08-03 | 115.40 | 114.47 | -0.8% |
| TSLA | 超跌反弹 | 07-29 | 08-03 | 305.80 | 322.07 | +5.3% |
| SPY | 超跌反弹 | 07-31 | 08-03 | 740.37 | 757.69 | +2.3% |
| QQQ | 超跌反弹 | 07-30 | 07-31 | 678.30 | 693.29 | +2.2% |
| MRVL | 超跌反弹 | 07-30 | 07-31 | 178.11 | 192.00 | +7.8% |
Balder’s Position
上涨趋势追随。每天收盘后发出，你可以在盘后或第二天从容进场 — 周期本来就长，不必抢那几分钟。每一笔都写明理由和分析。
进场时公开，离场时也公开 — 所以下面这张表天生是完整的， 没有办法只留下赢的。
| Symbol | In | Out | Entry | Last / exit | Return | Held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RGTI | OPEN | 14.46 | 18.67 | +29.1% | — | |
| QBTS | OPEN | 17.68 | 21.07 | +19.2% | — | |
| ASTS | OPEN | 55.45 | 70.32 | +26.8% | — | |
| IONQ | OPEN | 36.52 | 46.07 | +26.2% | — | |
| IBM | OPEN | 225.71 | 234.80 | +4.0% | — | |
| NFLX | OPEN | 73.53 | 78.08 | +6.2% | — | |
| NVDA | OPEN | 226.04 | 224.98 | -0.5% | — | |
| BRK-B | 08-03 | 08-15 | 517.22 | 505.97 | -2.2% | 12d |
| GOOGL | 08-06 | 08-13 | 357.54 | 346.03 | -3.2% | 7d |
| INTC | 07-29 | 08-12 | 81.88 | 102.50 | +25.2% | 14d |
| ARM | 07-30 | 08-12 | 241.54 | 274.30 | +13.6% | 13d |
| MCD | 08-06 | 08-12 | 275.65 | 275.04 | -0.2% | 6d |
| STX | 07-28 | 08-11 | 747.30 | 821.22 | +9.9% | 14d |
| MU | 08-03 | 08-11 | 829.50 | 861.22 | +3.8% | 8d |
| TSM | 08-03 | 08-11 | 406.11 | 420.79 | +3.6% | 8d |
| WDC | 07-29 | 08-11 | 462.04 | 437.67 | -5.3% | 13d |
| CRCL | 07-31 | 08-10 | 62.61 | 66.25 | +5.8% | 10d |
| MRVL | 08-06 | 08-10 | 210.54 | 213.69 | +1.5% | 4d |
| BE | 07-30 | 08-10 | 209.63 | 212.39 | +1.3% | 11d |
| UNH | 07-29 | 08-10 | 420.57 | 408.38 | -2.9% | 12d |
订阅使用说明书 · Handbook
三个渠道，内容完全相同 — 选最方便的那个就好。X 订阅请务必在网页版操作， 在 App 里订阅会被抽苹果税。
类似跟单：你看它买什么，就可以参考着买。执行超跌反弹和动量捕捉两个策略， 持仓时间从几个小时到几天，实时汇报交易情况，收盘半小时后总结当天所有交易。
各个策略之间各自独立执行，互不相关 — 因为它们的交易目的本来就不同。
执行上涨趋势追随策略。每天收盘后发出，你可以在盘后或第二天交易 — 交易周期比较长，不用抢那几分钟。每一笔都会给出理由和分析，看不懂的地方可以直接问我。
开仓时公布，平仓时也公布 — 整个记录是完整的，赢的输的都在。
看右上角的颜色就够了：
绿 — 系统认为可能涨
红 — 系统认为可能跌
灰 — coin-flip，系统没有给出任何预测
灰色不是"看不准"，是系统主动不出手 — 我们只公布有方向的那些， 历史成绩在这里。
SPX 以及其他 AI 产品目前全部免费，开放给所有观众 — 不订阅也能用。
后续还会有更多教程、策略和产品。
Membership · Beta
Also on X at $5 (subscribe on the web, not in the app — the app adds Apple's 30%) and Substack at $10. All three carry identical content. Full handbook →
Elsewhere
The daily posts run on X, long-form goes to Substack, and the community room is free to join — no payment needed for any of those.
The read as it happens — market calls, filings, and the charts from this desk.
Follow on X →The letters, the research write-ups, and everything that needs more than a post.
Read on Substack →The live 24/7 price board — SPX, NDX and the stocks that actually trade overnight.
Open the board →Ask questions, argue with the calls, and see what other members are trading.
Join the room →
The desk publishes every session — the SPX cone, the marked book, and whatever the filings turned up. Members get it by email before it goes anywhere else.